Premier League title race: Are we set for a three-way battle?

Here we assess the Premier League title picture with Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa separated by just three points at the top of the table.

Already this season, the Premier League title race has twice seemed a foregone conclusion.

An unblemished record in their opening five games saw reigning champions Liverpool develop an early five-point lead over the chasing pack before the end of September, only for Arne Slot’s side to suddenly slide down the table.

Then, only a few weeks ago, Arsenal looked set to romp to glory with a six-point advantage at the summit.

Mikel Arteta’s side remain in first place but their potential title march is proving nowhere near as serene as it might have looked, with the top three clubs now separated by just three points.

A draw against 10-man Chelsea and defeat at Aston Villa cut Arsenal’s advantage over second-placed Manchester City to just two points, before they required a last-ditch own goal – one of two they were gifted during the match – to see off bottom club Wolverhampton Wanderers last weekend.

City have scored at least three times while winning each of their past four Premier League matches, while Villa are on an extraordinary nine-game winning run across all competitions, including their last six in the league. It all suggests a potential three-way tussle for English football’s most coveted silverware.

In the 34-season history of the Premier League, this is only the 12th time that the top three clubs have been separated by as few as three points 16 games into the campaign.

Whether all three can sustain their challenge remains to be seen. On just three occasions (1998/99, 2007/08 and 2013/14) has the gap between the top three been less than seven points come the end of a season; in all three of those, first to third were separated by exactly four points. So will this one go down to the wire?

Arsenal

For a few weeks, perhaps even a couple of months, it seemed destiny that Premier League bridesmaids Arsenal would finally have their moment in the spotlight this season.

Following three successive second-place finishes, Arteta’s side looked imperious as they roared clear of a chasing pack that seemed to be slipping up with alarming regularity, their summer transfer dealings turning a formidable team into a devastatingly strong squad.

When they travelled to Villa Park for the first fixture of Matchweek 15 earlier this month, they had the chance to pull eight points clear. But they were defeated.

And, last weekend, they only managed to cling on to top spot when scraping past Wolves courtesy of two own goals in what was expected to be a mismatch.

Despite their excellent strengthening, they have suffered from injuries this season with precious few players avoiding time on the sidelines. That Mikel Merino has played numerous games as a striker and Christian Norgaard started as a centre-back tells a story.

It leaves the same question being asked of them as in previous seasons: can they last the distance or will they be overtaken again as they have been in recent campaigns?

Manchester City

They won just two of their opening five Premier League games this season, it appeared last season’s blip was no temporary malaise.

Yet, here they are, three months on, as the division’s leading goalscorers and within two points of top spot.

As always, Erling Haaland is leading the way. While there is plenty of doubt over which team will triumph this season, it is inconceivable that anything other than injury can prevent the Norwegian from topping the Premier League goalscoring charts, where he already has a six-goal cushion having scored 17 times in 16 games.

After Brentford’s Igor Thiago – who is his closest challenger – teammate Phil Foden stands next among a host of players on seven goals.

The Man City academy graduate endured a tricky campaign in 2024/25 and took some time to get going this season but has been at his brilliant best in recent weeks, scoring six times in City’s last four league games.

On the other flank, Rayan Cherki is now frequently showing why excitement levels were so high when he signed in the summer.

They are defensively vulnerable – riding their luck to beat Crystal Palace last weekend – but Pep Guardiola teams always finish seasons well: even in last season’s disappointment, they went unbeaten in the last 10 games to place third.

Aston Villa

Unai Emery continues to downplay Villa’s title chances and it is not difficult to see why. Since finishing second in the inaugural 1992/93 Premier League season, Villa have never ended a campaign higher than fourth.

Indeed, they were in almost this exact position two years ago. In Emery’s first full season at the helm, successive 1-0 victories against Man City and Arsenal saw Villa just a win over Sheffield United away from claiming top spot just before Christmas.

But they could only draw that match and thoughts of fighting for the title soon disappeared as a poor second half of the campaign saw them fade to a distant fourth.

Yet they are making a habit of exceeding expectations. Having missed Uefa Champions League qualification on goal difference on the final day of last season, the club were hindered in their transfer dealings over the summer and then effectively gave everyone else a headstart when failing to win any of their opening five league games.

They have been imperious ever since, beating both Man City and Arsenal at Villa Park, where they have lost just one of their last 26 Premier League games.

Despite finding themselves twice behind at West Ham United on Sunday, and finishing with an Expected Goals (xG) total of just 0.62, they found a way of scoring three times to win 3-2. Indeed, their long-range shooting prowess this season has seen them score 25 Premier League goals from an xG of just 17.06.

The rest

With a five-point buffer between third and fourth place, it appears unlikely that any other team could muscle their way into the title race, but it is not impossible.

With Cole Palmer back and inspiring Chelsea to victory over Everton last weekend, Enzo Maresca’s side appear the most likely candidates as the current fourth-placed side.

Manchester United sit level on points with them after beating AFC Bournemouth and Ruben Amorim’s side have lost just once in 10 league games despite often not being at their best.

Then there is Liverpool, whose runaway title success last season shows they have the players to win trophies.