Will Australia dislodge Springboks from their No 1 spot?

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for opening round of The Rugby Championship 2025 this weekend.

Permutation highlights

• South Africa’s No 1 ranking is at threat if they do not beat Australia in The Rugby Championship 2025 opener in Johannesburg.

• A draw will mean that New Zealand have to beat Argentina later in the day to return to the summit for the first time since November 2021.

• Defeat for South Africa will mean New Zealand only need a draw in Cordoba to leapfrog the Springboks.

• Ireland, in third, are not in action this weekend but can still benefit from the opening round of The Rugby Championship action if there are upsets.

• They could jump back to No 1, albeit only if both South Africa and New Zealand lose by more than 15 points. If only one of these were to happen, Ireland will still climb a place to second above that beaten side.

• South Africa, though, will retain top spot if they beat Australia, despite the fact the world champions are unable to improve their rating due to the 10.70 points difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in.

• This is because New Zealand can only gain a maximum of 0.45 rating points for beating lower-ranked Argentina away and they currently trail South Africa by 0.72 points.

• Argentina will oust Australia from sixth place – which would be enough for a Band 1 place come the RWC 2027 draw in December – if Australia are beaten and they avoid defeat against New Zealand.

• A draw for Australia away to the world champions would have the same impact if Los Pumas are victorious over New Zealand for the first time on home soil.

• This scenario can also happen if Australia end their 14-year barren spell on South Africa soil, providing the Wallabies winning margin is less than 15 points and Argentina’s is more than 15 points.

• Argentina cannot fall any lower than seventh this weekend even with a heavy loss to New Zealand, although only just as this would leave them only 0.04 rating points above Scotland in eighth.

Match official highlights

• Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand) will referee South Africa v Australia for the fourth time, having taken charge of the 27-27 draw in 2017 and the Springboks' two victories in 2022. He was in the middle for Australia's opening Test defeat by the British & Irish Lions last month.

• Pierre Brousset (France) takes charge of Argentina v New Zealand for the first time with both teams unbeaten in their only previous encounters with the Frenchman in the middle, Los Pumas beating Australia in Santa Fe last year's tournament and the All Blacks beating Italy away last November.

Springbok starting XV: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse; 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Grant Williams; 8 Siya Kolisi (capt), 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Marco van Staden; 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth; 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche. Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Boan Venter, 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Canan Moodie, 23 Damian Willemse.

Wallaby starting XV: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Dylan Pietsch; 10 James O'Connor, 9 Nic White; 8 Harry Wilson (capt), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper; 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost; 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper. Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tane Edmed, 22 Tate McDermott, 23 Andrew Kellaway.

South Africa v Australia - Saturday @ Emirates Airline Park (5.10pm)

Referee: Ben O'Keeffe (NZR)

Assistant Referees: James Doleman (NZR), Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR)

Television Match Official: Tual Trainini (FFR)

FPRO: Richard Kelly (NZR)

Broadcast: SuperSport Rugby