Who will claim the Golden Boot?

More goals than ever before are guaranteed. The 23rd FIFA World Cup, indeed, will feature 40 more matches than any previous edition. One thing that’s far from a given is which player will score more times than any other. FIFA looks at the 10 men with the shortest odds to seize the adidas Golden Boot.

Kylian Mbappe

France

56 goals in 98 internationals

12 goals in 14 World Cup games

Group I opponents: Senegal, Iraq, Norway

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $10.5m

If Thierry Henry and Olivier Giroud were 30 and 36 respectively when they became France’s all-time leading marksman, Mbappe is set to do it at 27. As well as netting 39 times in his last 49 outings for Les Bleus, the electric attacker averaged almost a goal per game at Paris Saint-Germain and is doing the same at Real Madrid. Back-to-back World Cup Golden Boots, with elite creators such as Rayan Cherki, Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue and Michael Olise to feed him, is within Mbappe’s reach.

Harry Kane

England

79 goals in 113 internationals

8 goals in 11 World Cup games

Group L opponents: Croatia, Ghana, Panama

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $10.5m

Could Kane become the first man in history to win the Golden Boot twice? His argument is compelling. The 32-year-old has averaged more than a goal per Bundesliga game since joining Bayern Munich in 2023 and is fresh from his fifth calendar year from the last nine in which he’s scored at least as many times as he’s played England matches. Kane will also benefit from being supplied bullets by the likes of Jude Bellingham, Eberechi Eze, Marcus Rashford and Bukayo Saka.

Mikel Oyarzabal

Spain

25 goals in 53 internationals

0 World Cup games

Group H opponents: Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $8.1m

The Eibar native wasn’t among the 25 favourites two years ago. Now only two men top the 29-year-old on the forerunners’ chart. Aided by the invention of Pedri, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, Oyarzabal has struck 13 times in his last 13 outings for Spain.

Erling Haaland

Norway

55 goals in 50 internationals

0 World Cup games

Group I opponents: Iraq, Senegal, France

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $10.5m

Haaland’s figures are otherworldly. Last October, he became only the sixth footballer in history – and first in 53 years – to reach 50 international goals in fewer than 50 caps. The hulking striker also scores with military regularity for Manchester City. Norway were drawn into an examining section but Haaland, with Oscar Bobb, Antonio Nusa and Martin Odegaard serving him, can score against anyone.

Lionel Messi

Argentina

116 goals in 198 internationals

13 goals in 26 World Cup games

Group J opponents: Algeria, Austria, Jordan

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $10m

One of the most magnificent marksmen in football history will turn 39 during the global finals but he’s still scoring for fun. Messi has struck 35 times in his last 37 matches for Argentina and continues to rewrite goalscoring records with Inter Miami. Curiously, the competition’s Golden Boot is one of few prizes to have eluded Messi, who is one of only two men to score more than six times in one edition and not win it.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Portugal

143 goals in 226 internationals

8 goals in 22 World Cup games

Group K opponents: Congo DR, Uzbekistan, Colombia

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $10m

International football’s all-time leading marksman is still firing on all cylinders. The 40-year-old continues to rewrite scoring mileposts at Al Nassr and has registered 25 goals in his last 30 Portugal appearances. Ronaldo struggled for minutes following a fall-out with coach Fernando Santos at Qatar 2022 but he’s getting plenty of them under Roberto Martinez. With Francisco Conceicao, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leao, Pedro Neto and Bernardo Silva working their magic behind him, Ronaldo will back himself to beat his best World Cup return: four goals set at Russia 2018.

Lamine Yamal

Spain

6 goals in 25 internationals

0 World Cup games

Group H opponents: Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $10m

The winger, who will be only six days past his 19th birthday when the World Cup concludes, could smash the record for its youngest Golden Boot winner. It belongs to James Rodriguez, who was one day past his 23rd birthday when he triumphed in 2014. Yamal is most esteemed as a creator but his long-range curlers are deadly and he bagged 18 goals for Barcelona in 2024/25.

Ousmane Dembele

France

7 goals in 59 internationals

0 goals in 11 World Cup games

Group I opponents: Senegal, Iraq, Norway

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $10m

How is someone with the above statistics among the frontrunners? Because Dembele has, at club level, evolved from an electrifying winger into a devastating striker, scoring 55 times for Paris Saint-Germain across the last two campaigns. With the untouchable Mbappe operating through the centre for France, however, Dembele is likely to be stationed in behind or out wide.

Vinicius Jr

Brazil

9 goals in 49 internationals

1 goal in 4 World Cup games

Group C opponents: Morocco, Haiti, Scotland

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $10m

The 25-year-old is, given his position and comparatively inferior scoring record to others, a surprise candidate. Vinicius has, however, broken the 20-goal mark for Real Madrid in each of the past five seasons.

Raphinha

Brazil

11 goals in 38 internationals

0 goals in 5 World Cup games

Group C opponents: Morocco, Haiti, Scotland

FIFA World Cup Fantasy price: $8.2m

Deadly from the edge of the box, the attacking midfielder has netted 55 goals in 90 games for Barcelona since the start of 2024/25. Raphinha will likely take Brazil’s penalties and some free-kicks.

World Cup top scorers

1930: Guillermo Stabile (8 goals)

1934: Oldrich Nejedly (5)

1938: Leonidas (7)

1950: Ademir de Menezes (9)

1954: Sandor Kocsis (11)

1958: Just Fontaine (13)

1962: Florian Albert, Garrincha, Valentin Ivanov, Drazen Jerkovic, Leonel Sanchez & Vava (4)

1966: Eusebio (9)

1970: Gerd Muller (10)

1974: Grzegorz Lato (7)

1978: Mario Kempes (6)

1982: Paolo Rossi (6)

1986: Gary Lineker (6)

1990: Toto Schillaci (6)

1994: Oleg Salenko & Hristo Stoichkov (6)

1998: Davor Suker (6)

2002: Ronaldo (8)

2006: Miroslav Klose (5)

2010: Thomas Muller, Wesley Sneijder & David Villa (5)

2014: James Rodriguez (6)

2018: Harry Kane (6)

2022: Kylian Mbappe (8)