What we learned from Matchweek 24

Emphatic away win casts aside suggestions Arsenal’s title challenge is fragile

A perfect weekend for Arsenal has flipped the narrative once again. Those hand-wringing suggestions that Mikel Arteta's side will hesitate under pressure look almost laughably unfair now as they accelerate away from the chasing pack.

There is plenty of time for the title race to change again but the emphatic nature of Arsenal’s victory in what was supposed to be a nervy game, followed by dropped points for both Manchester City and Aston Villa, has arguably put the club in a stronger position than at any other point this season.

That is especially true when you consider next weekend’s fixture list. If Arsenal beat Sunderland at home on Saturday they will end the day nine points clear at the top, the first time they have done that since 2003/04, the "Invincibles" season and with Man City travelling to Anfield to face Liverpool the next day, that big lead could stay.

Six points clear after 24 games is healthy but far from decisive, Man City fans will say. Nevertheless, for a long time now, pundits have been suggesting Arsenal’s main enemy is themselves; that their title challenge is a test of mettle only.

Man City’s passivity in the second half at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium certainly suggests that is true, as does a quick look at the mathematics.

The maximum points tally Man City can get is now 89. That’s the number Arsenal reached in 2023/24, a season in which they had 53 points after 24 matches. This year, they have 54 at the same stage.

Frankly it is highly unlikely Man City, who have won just one of their last six Premier League matches, will win all of their remaining 14, meaning Arsenal are sitting above their 2023/24 average but don’t even need to hit those heights to win the Premier League.

Just like that, the pendulum has swung dramatically in their favour.

Carrick’s 3-4-2-1 shows that the switch from Amorim is about more than tactics

An stoppage-time Benjamin Sesko winner was proof that Michael Carrick has the magic touch.

A perfect start to his interim tenure at Old Trafford got even better on Sunday, when a winner in "Fergie time" helped cement Carrick’s status in the public imagination as a disciple of Sir Alex Ferguson and carrier of the torch.

It is still too early to get carried away, of course.

Manchester United very nearly dropped two points after blowing a two-goal lead against Fulham but there are too many signs to ignore the feeling that Carrick is a substantial upgrade on Ruben Amorim, not least the fact he can even get a tune out of the much-criticised 3-4-2-1 formation.

Although nominally still playing the same back four as in his first two matches in charge, Carrick instructed his team to sit in a 3-4-2-1 formation when in possession, with Diogo Dalot (RB) slipping into a back three, Matheus Cunha (LW) and Bruno Fernandes (AM) operating together as inside forwards and Amad (RW) effectively becoming a wing-back:

Indeed, the opening set-piece goal was pure Amorim: Man Utd resting in a 3-4-2-1, the ball being moved out to the wide wing-back Amad, and an under-lapping run from the inside forward, Cunha, creating havoc that won the free-kick.

This tells us the issues under Amorim, and the revival under Carrick, are more complex than the formation used. The new head coach has reinvigorated this team mentally, physically, and tactically.

Man City’s passive second halves are a serious tactical conundrum

Thomas Frank deserves credit for the turnaround on Sunday afternoon, having switched his 3-4-3 for a 4-2-3-1 in the second half to push Man City back and dramatically shift the momentum of the game.

But Pep Guardiola’s side allowed that to happen all too easily – and not for the first time.

Man City’s record in the second half is considerably worse than in the first half.

They have also "lost" nine second halves this season, the fifth-most in the division and the same number as Burnley.

This could be a problem of fatigue, as so many people – including Guardiola himself – predicted after Man City’s Fifa Club World Cup campaign, or it could be a deeper tactical issue; a passivity that comes from a failure to press hard and compress space like the team used to.

Their PPDA is 11.9, the ninth-lowest in the Premier League. This might explain why opponents are able to shift momentum and why Man City are unable to wrest back control.

Whatever the reason, it is Man City – not Arsenal – who look fragile, vulnerable and prone to drifting away when the going gets tough. Unless Guardiola finds an answer, Arteta's side will ride off into the distance.

Rosenior changes fullbacks to find formula against old-school Nuno

At half-time, with West Ham United 2-0 up, this looked like a story of old-fashioned tactics – long-ball football, a 4-4-2, targeting a weakness and hitting it again and again – with an experienced manager beating the overly-complicated ideas of the young upstart.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side pumped balls into the zone around Jorrel Hato, who struggled badly in part because he was tasked with fulfilling a complex role as an inverted left-back instructed to move into central midfield.

Jarrod Bowen and Aaron Wan-Bissaka, who registered two assists, ran riot on that side and Liam Rosenior appeared to have over-thought this one, his hybrid 4-2-3-1/3-4-3 proving too much for a team coping with seven changes to the starting XI.

The solution was to simplify. Abandoning the strange 3-4-3 – that also had Cole Palmer and Enzo Fernandez dropping into deep, wide-midfield positions – Rosenior moved to a less radical 4-2-3-1 with his full-backs now in traditional wide positions.

This changing of the fullbacks - including bringing on Marc Cucurella – helped Chelsea get a foothold. In fact, it was one fullback (Malo Gusto) hitting the bar and the rebound falling to another (Cucurella) that got them their equaliser.

The lesson in here for Rosenior is to avoid the same tactical complications that so often bogged down his predecessor. Round pegs in round holes, and his best players on the pitch, did enough to beat a side in the relegation zone.

Ekitike and Wirtz are leading Liverpool’s regeneration under Slot

The sheer volume of draws over the last few months has left many commentators unable to see that Liverpool are back on the up, but the thrashing of Newcastle United on Saturday evening ought to correct that.

Arne Slot’s side have lost just one of their last 16 matches in all competitions, a record that shows just how close they are to being a serious force again.

By far the biggest reason for optimism is the performances of Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz.

Ekitike’s brace took him to 10 Premier League goals this season, making him the youngest Liverpool player to reach double figures since Michael Owen in 2000/01.

Meanwhile, since 20 December, Wirtz has been involved in more goals than any other Premier League player (nine, all competitions).

What’s more, Ekitike and Wirtz have combined for six goals in all competitions this season, more than any other Premier League duo, sharing the goals and assists equally.

Liverpool are just two points off the top four and still in the FA Cup and Uefa Champions League; there is still time for this to be a successful season for them.

Villa’s low-block issue throws their Champions League hopes into doubt

This wasn’t the first time Aston Villa have struggled to break down a low block this season. It wasn’t even the first time it has happened against Brentford.

In a repeat of the reverse fixture in August, Brentford were 1-0 winners, courtesy of a Dango Ouattara goal. This time, Keith Andrews’ side pulled off the same feat despite being down to 10 men for more than half the game.

Villa completed 355 passes in the second half, their most passes in a single half of Premier League of football on record (since 2003/04), reflecting their domination of the ball and inability to break through a crowded penalty area.

It is a longstanding issue under Unai Emery, whose tactics are founded on the opposition pressing his team, leaving gaps for line-splitting passes. The 1-0 defeat at home to Everton a fortnight ago was similar, as was the 1-1 draw with 10-man Sunderland in September.

In fact, Villa have won just four points from the five Premier League matches in which they have held more than 60% possession this season.

Others will surely follow suit, throwing Villa’s hopes of Champions League qualification into doubt, especially with chasers Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool all improving significantly this calendar year.

Both Forest and Palace look safe from relegation after draw

This might have been billed as a must-win six-pointer for two relegation threatened clubs but after West Ham’s defeat at Chelsea, a draw turns out to have been a decent result. Both Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace are in strong positions to avoid the drop.

Forest have won 21 points from 16 matches under Sean Dyche and sit 11th in the Premier League form table since his arrival on 21 October. In other words, they might be down the bottom now but their position is essentially a false one.

As for Palace, they are now winless in nine Premier League games, their worse run under Oliver Glasner, but are a huge nine points clear of the drop zone.

With Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers to play in their next two home games, two victories in their two easiest (on paper) matches of the season would take Glasner's side to 35 points and within touching distance of survival.

Kroupi could soon become favourite for Young Player of the Season

A brilliant goal from Junior Kroupi was the decisive moment at Molineux and de facto winner given that Alex Scott’s cushion goal didn’t come until the 91st minute.

It was hardly the first time Kroupi has made the difference. The 19-year-old has been a revelation this season, scoring eight Premier League goals, the second most by a French teenager in a single campaign behind Nicolas Anelka in 1998/99 (13 goals).

At this rate, Kroupi will surpass Anelka’s record. At this rate, he will become a Premier League star just like Anelka.

Certainly, the Bournemouth forward looks a good bet for the Premier League Young Player of the Season award, a gong that would lift his status to a whole new level.

Late equaliser piles pressure onto Brighton’s ‘M23 derby’

Beto’s 97th-minute equaliser was a huge blow to Brighton supporters and Fabien Hurzeler, who has now overseen just one win in his team's last 11 Premier League games.

Victory on Saturday would have been their first in five matches and would have provided the perfect boost before a huge game next weekend.

Instead, Brighton remain deflated and mired in the bottom half of the table after being unable, once again, to put their chances away. They managed a meagre two shots on target against Everton, despite creating several golden opportunities in the first half.

It piles pressure onto next weekend’s "M23 derby" against Palace at the Amex.

Victory in that game will bring a sigh of relief and allow Hurzeler’s team to start looking up the table again. If they lose, slipping below Palace in the process, the fans will start to wonder just how bad this season is going to get.

AFCON returns reignite Sunderland but “childish” Burnley are in trouble

Just two weeks ago, Habib Diarra and Chemsdine Talbi were at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) final, the last two players of the six that Sunderland lost to the tournament who were still out there.

It is no surprise that Sunderland won just one of their six Premier League matches while AFCON was taking place – and no surprise that Regis Le Bris’ side are suddenly back on the up again now.

Diarra played a huge hand in their first two goals against Burnley, scoring the second after his deflected shot was registered as an Axel Tuanzebe own goal for the first. Talbi's superb strike sealed a comfortable 3-0 win for the hosts.

Sunderland, rejuvenated by the return of their star players, are back up into eighth, which could earn its occupants a Uefa Conference League place this season.

The shadow of AFCON always loomed over their fast start to the season. Now it is behind them, there are no more obstacles in their path; no reason why Sunderland cannot qualify for Europe in their first Premier League campaign for nine years.

Burnley, who finished above Sunderland in the Championship last season, could hardly be having a more different campaign.

This was arguably a new low for Scott Parker’s side, who are 11 points adrift of safety and 15 games without a Premier League win. The assessment from inside the camp was damning.

“We were just nowhere near it, really,” Parker said. “We looked like a childish team that had no intent. I didn’t see any purpose. We fell way short at the real basics. We were passive in every phase. We’re in a difficult moment.”

It would take an unprecedented "great escape" for Burnley to survive from here.