What are the tactical options for the Miami Grand Prix?

Oranje rather than papaya took top honours in the Sunshine State on Saturday afternoon when we got our second pole position driver of the weekend. Max Verstappen put a dismal Sprint result behind him to deliver a mighty lap when it mattered, edging out Lando Norris by a matter of hundredths of a second.

Norris wasn’t too disconsolate, however, having bested drivers’ championship leader and teammate Oscar Piastri. There was only a 10th between the two McLarens but that was sufficient space for Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli to crowbar his way in, delivering his second impressive qualifying performance of the weekend.

It's the same all the way down the order: tiny gaps from first to last and all to play for in the Miami Grand Prix. With very little high-fuel running in practice, a wet Sprint race and a different tyre allocation to 2024, it’s impossible to predict which way this one is going to go … though we feel on fairly safe ground predicting strategy will be vital.

Lando Norris took his maiden F1 victory here last year in a race that eventually hinged on a dramatic Safety Car – but may well have had greater drama without the interruption. The majority of the field planned a one-stop strategy, starting on the C3 medium compound, switching mid-race to a C2 hard tyre.

Degradation was low and thus the pit-stop window was wide, with medium starters coming in as early as Lap 10. Of the front runners, Sergio Perez was the first to pit, on Lap 17. Norris, however, was still running on Lap 29 when the Safety Car came out, catapulting him into the lead with a cheap stop, in front of Piastri and Verstappen, who were shaping up to have a battle royale of their own.

Eight of the top 10 ran the medium>hard race. The two naysayers were Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso, both of whom ran the opposite hard>medium race. Hamilton started eighth and finished sixth, making his stop on Lap 26. Alonso stopped on Lap 22 and ran a 35-lap medium stint, rising from P15 on the grid to P9 at the flag.

Only three drivers did a stint on the C4 soft tyre – which is significant, given it is this year’s medium compound. Zhou Guanyu, finishing 14th was the highest-placed finisher with a medium>soft race, pitting on Lap 28.

Valtteri Bottas started on the soft tyre and ran to Lap 11 – before switching to the hard compound, though he also pitted under the Safety Car, converting to a two-stopper. Finally, Alex Albon, who was that Lap 10 stopper, attempted a very long hard stint but had to admit defeat, pitting for soft four laps from home.

In an effort to promote a little more variety, Pirelli have gone a step softer with their tyre choices – but they’ve also made compounds that are a little more robust. The result of which is that the medium>hard one-stop race still looks the odds-on favourite, with an optimum pit-window more-or-less where it was last year, somewhere between Laps 19-25.

The approach that worked out well for Hamilton and Alonso last year should still be viable this time around. The hard>medium race moves the pit-stop out to Laps 32-38.

It comes with the advantage of greater potential to catch a lucky break with a Safety Car – but also slightly worse start performance and a lack of flexibility if that Safety Car comes too early.

With the exception of the Racing Bulls drivers, everyone has retained both sets of hard tyres for the race. This can be viewed as red flag and/or Safety Car insurance rather than a cunning two-stop plan – but the two-stop is there if the track doesn’t behave as expected.

The C3 is the best race tyre, so either medium>hard>hard or soft>hard>hard are the likely two-stoppers. The former has optimum windows between Laps 12-18 and 34-40; the latter advances those to Laps 8-14 and 31-37.

This is the wildcard. Saturday’s Sprint bought with it a fair amount of chaos but also some useful learning. We discovered that the track dries reasonably quickly, and when it does, it really starts to hurt the front-right intermediate tyre.

Given we have a 40% chance of rain at start time, rising to 60% mid-race, this is going to be interesting if anyone needs to extend an inter stint – either to get to the flag on a drying track, or trying to hold on with more rain on the way, as is likely with the sort of scudding showers that influenced running on Saturday.

“The track was drying but the lap-times were not improving because high wear on the front-right was generating understeer,” explains Pirelli Motorsport Director Mario Isola.

“This happened after 10-12 laps in the Sprint, which is an important indicator for the race: if we have a drying track with a chance of more rain, they’ve got to look for water (wetter patches on track). If they can’t, then the inter will wear too quickly and they’ll have to consider another pit-stop.”

Interesting times on the way then on race day at the Hard Rock Stadium …