What are the best ever starts to a Premier League season?

Arsenal have enjoyed their joint-best start to a Premier League season after the opening 10 matches, with nine victories and only one defeat giving them 27 points out of a possible 30 and a five-point lead over their nearest challengers, Brighton & Hove Albion.

But where does the reigning champions' start rank among the best ever in the history of the Premier League? And how much does such a good start determine whether they will retain their title? Let's have a look.

Where does Arsenal's start rank among the best ever?

This is actually only the seventh-best start to a Premier League season.

Four teams have managed a draw on top of their nine wins, giving them 28 points. Manchester City have done so twice (2011/12 and 2017/18), as well as Chelsea in 2005/06 and Liverpool in 2019/20.

Arsenal's 3-0 defeat to Brighton in September has left them short of that total. And of the three teams who have collected 27 points from their opening 10 matches, this season's Arsenal side have the lowest goal difference.

Do teams who start this strongly win the title?

Interestingly, there is a big difference between the teams who have amassed 28 points from their opening 10 matches and those who have managed 27.

All four of the teams who got that extra draw have gone on to win the title, whereas neither of the two teams who suffered that solitary defeat have been crowned champions. They both finished runners-up.

Mikel Arteta's team will aim to stop that trend this season.

Do teams who are top after 10 matches win the title?

As for how often the league leaders at the 10-match stage of a season become champions, the data suggests this is even less guaranteed.

In the past six seasons, the team in first place after 10 matches have missed out on the title four times. However, in each of the last two campaigns, the early leaders have finished the job, with Liverpool and then Arsenal lifting the trophy.

Do teams with a five-point lead after 10 matches win the title?

History suggests that Arsenal's five-point lead is significant.

Across the Premier League's 34 completed seasons, there have only been nine occasions where a team have trailed by five points or more after 10 matches and come back to win the title.

That includes three instances of a team coming from six points back, which is the current distance from third-placed Man City to Arsenal. Notably, Man City themselves are responsible for two of those three comebacks, in 2013/14 and 2020/21.

Only one team have come from further back than that - Blackburn Rovers were eight points behind leaders Nottingham Forest after 10 rounds in 1994/95.

So, any team currently lying outside the top three would need to achieve something no club have done in the last 31 years to be crowned champions.