Can Red Bull or Mercedes take the fight to McLaren at the Spanish Grand Prix?

It looked to be another solid start to a weekend for McLaren during Friday practice ahead of the Spanish Grand Prix, with Lando Norris topping FP1 while Oscar Piastri set the pace in FP2. But with the likes of Max Verstappen and George Russell also in the mix, could the papaya squad have a fight on their hands?

Looking at the timesheets, championship leaders McLaren seemed to have continued their strong run of form as Round 9 got underway at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. Norris was three-tenths clear of nearest challenger Verstappen in first practice and Piastri held a similar advantage over Russell in the second hour of running.

Our data backs this up – particularly in terms of race pace, where the Woking-based outfit appear to hold the edge over their rivals. Red Bull are 0.15s adrift in this area, while Ferrari and Mercedes are a further distance off.

And in terms of where the MCL39 is gaining the most, the data highlights that the squad are evidently quicker than their competitors on the straights in particular. They also generally remain faster through all corner types with a few exceptions; Ferrari, for example, are best through slow-speed, while both Red Bull and Mercedes are marginally quicker in high-speed.

Despite this, Piastri has warned that the team cannot be complacent, stating after second practice: “It’s been a bit of an up and down day, obviously ending on an up, which is good. But our competitors look quick.

“I think Verstappen has been quick all day, Ferrari have been there, Mercedes popped up at the end, so it’s going to be a tight battle tomorrow. There are definitely still some things to try and work on.”

Speaking of Verstappen, things could get interesting during Saturday’s Qualifying session; our data shows that, while McLaren might be ahead on race pace, things are much closer between themselves and the Red Bull driver in Qualifying trim.

There is very little to choose between the two in this category and our Ideal Lap analysis also brings Verstappen slightly closer to Piastri, albeit by a fraction.

The World Champion – who has a successful history in Barcelona, having proven victorious in the last three editions of the race – admitted after Friday’s running that he was feeling more optimistic about the performance than he has done during other weekends.

“It’s always nice to be here – the track is always very enjoyable to drive,” he explained. “It’s quite hot out there as well, especially for the tyres. But I think it was an okay Friday – we’ve had worse Fridays!

“I felt a bit happier with the car, we’re still not where we want to be but it was definitely a bit more positive.”

Despite holding second place in the Teams’ Championship, Mercedes are in need of a strong weekend in Barcelona, having faced two challenging outings in Imola and Monaco.

It certainly looked like things were going in the right direction when Russell at one stage set the pace during FP2 before going on to end the session in second place, with teammate Kimi Antonelli in sixth.

However, Russell admitted later on that the squad’s Qualifying pace had appeared much stronger than in long runs, stating: “In the Quali runs we looked pretty decent, so it was nice to be back where the car has been after some tough races.

“Nevertheless, the long run pace doesn’t look superb and that has been an objective of ours recently, to try and improve the long run pace.”

Our data backs this up, with the Silver Arrows third fastest in Qualifying simulations while their race pace form puts them down in fourth, some 0.41s back from McLaren.

The team that beats Mercedes to third on the long-run pace charts is Ferrari, the Scuderia’s Sunday performance again looking likely to better their form on Saturday. However, the team are still around 0.3s adrift in both pace types.

While Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc placed in third and fourth respectively in Free Practice 1, Leclerc slipped down to fifth in second practice while Hamilton was even further back in P11, leaving the seven-time World Champion to rue what he called a “not fun” day.

“Honestly, I thought the car was going to be good today,” Hamilton reflected afterwards. “It wasn’t too bad in P1 but P2 was much worse. Naturally, that’s frustrating for everyone but we had some problems, which meant we were losing some downforce. Hopefully, with that fixed for tomorrow, we’ll be in a better place.”

Leclerc, meanwhile, remained optimistic about the Italian outfit’s chances of improving during the rest of the weekend, adding: “It was a bit more positive than what we expected coming here, so that is good.

“There is more performance in the car, which I hope we will unlock tomorrow, come Qualifying.”