Can Boks get back to the summit of World Rugby?

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for matches in The Rugby Championship 2025, Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup 2025 and Sudaméricano 2025 this weekend.

Permutation highlights

• South Africa, for the first time this year, are able to gain rating points in victory which could see them secure an immediate return to the number one ranking.

• For this to happen, the Springboks must first avenge their defeat by Australia and then hope that New Zealand lose by more than 15 points against Argentina in Buenos Aires.

• If this happens, South Africa and New Zealand will simply swap places but if not a win is still enough to lift the Springboks above Ireland into second place.

• Alternatively, if the outcomes and margins from last weekend are repeated, the All Blacks will open up a 2.99 rating point advantage over Ireland at the top of the rankings.

• A second defeat by more than 15 points will result in the Springboks crashing from first to sixth in the space of a fortnight. This is one shy of their lowest-ever position of seventh which they last occupied in 2018.

• France and Australia would be the beneficiaries of this drop, climbing to third and fourth respectively with fourth the Wallabies’ best position for nearly four years.

• A smaller margin of victory for Australia will not result in any positional changes.

• Any form of defeat for Argentina will see them swap places with Scotland and drop down to eighth.

• It is not possible for Los Pumas to climb the rankings this weekend, even with a first victory over New Zealand in Argentina.

• However, an Argentina win by more than 15 points will, if accompanied by a draw between South Africa and Australia, see Ireland back on top of the rankings for the first time since November.

• The Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup 2025 gets underway on Friday with all four teams in action seeking a victory to set their bid to qualify for Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 off to the perfect start.

• It is not possible for USA or Samoa – the higher-ranked team in each fixture – to gain enough points with away victories to climb the rankings.

• However, Samoa will drop below Japan if beaten by Tonga in Nuku’alofa with the ‘Ikale Tahi’s reward being one or two places depending on the margin or three if the USA also lose to Canada.

• Canada, the only team in the competition ranked outside the top 20 in 25th, will gain one or two places depending on the margin.

• The Men’s Eagles could fall to 19th – one shy of their all-time low – if they lose by more than 15 points in Calgary.

• The weekend’s other match is also part of the RWC 2027 qualification process with Uruguay hosting Paraguay in the second leg of their Sudaméricano 2025 semi-final.

• Los Teros are unable to improve their rating with a second victory due to the 19.17-point differential between the teams before home weighting is factored in.

• However, Paraguay will gain at least three places if they can upset Los Teros.

Match official highlights

• James Doleman (New Zealand) referees the first Rugby Championship match of the weekend in Cape Town; the first time he will referee South Africa v Australia. He made his Test debut in the middle in Australia in 2021, while the Springboks have won their only previous Test with Doleman as referee.

• Nic Berry (Australia) takes charge of Argentina v New Zealand for the fourth time, the All Blacks having won all three and conceded only three points in the process. Argentina's last win with Berry in the middle was against Samoa at Rugby World Cup 2023.

• Luke Pearce (England) will referee Canada v USA for the first time with both sides currently having a losing record with the English official in the middle. It will be the first time Pearce referees Canada since 2018.

• Angus Gardner (Australia) takes charge of Tonga v Samoa for the second time, having been in the middle for Manu Samoa's 34-9 victory in a Rugby World Cup 2023 warm-up match.

• Damián Schneider (Argentina) will referee Uruguay v Paraguay for the first time in their Sudaméricano 2025 semi-final second leg in Montevideo.