WALES v SOUTH AFRICA – PRINCIPALITY STADIUM, CARDIFF – KO 5.40pm (local time)
Referee
Karl Dickson (England)
Test debut: 17 November, 2018 – Georgia 27-19 Samoa
Tests as referee: 21
Karl Dickson will take charge of this fixture for the first time, having only previously been an assistant referee for Wales’ 20-11 defeat of South Africa in November 2018.
Wales have a W1, L3 record with Dickson as referee, the solitary win coming against Portugal (28-8) at Rugby World Cup 2023.
The English official last took charge of Wales in the 29-17 loss to Argentina in the France 2023 quarter-final.
South Africa have a W1, L1 record with Dickson in the middle, having beaten Argentina on his Rugby Championship debut in 2021 and lost 25-24 to Ireland in July.
This will be his fourth Test of the year, having also overseen Ireland’s 38-17 defeat of France in the Guinness Men’s Six Nations in February and New Zealand’s 31-28 victory over Australia in The Rugby Championship in September.
Head-to-head
Played: 42 – South Africa leads 34-7 with one draw
Points for: Wales 671 / South Africa 1,112 (avg. score: 16-26)
Highest score: Wales 36 (36-38 on 6 November, 2004) / South Africa 96 (96-13 on 27 June, 1998)
Biggest winning margin: Wales 14 (27-13 on 26 November, 2016) / South Africa 83 (96-13 on 27 June, 1998)
First met: 1 December, 1906 – South Africa 11-0 Wales – St Helen’s, Swansea
Last met: 22 June, 2024 – South Africa 41-13 Wales – Twickenham Stadium, Twickenham, England
Head-to-head notes
Wales suffered a record home defeat to South Africa the last time the sides met in Cardiff in August 2023, losing 52-16.
It was also Wales’ heaviest defeat under Warren Gatland in 133 fixtures up until that point and the first time they had conceded 50 or more points during either of his stints in charge.
It was also the most tries shipped on his watch in a Test at that stage, with the Springboks crossing their line seven times, a record which was broken last week when Australia ran in eight against them.
Canan Moodie and Jesse Kriel scored twice in the last Cardiff meeting, while Malcolm Marx, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Damian Willemse, who was yellow carded with 10 minutes to go, also dotted down for the Springboks. Manie Libbok kicked five conversions.
Sam Costelow kicked three first-half penalties before Sam Parry crashed over with nine minutes to go. Debutant Cai Evans kicked the conversion.
The most recent meeting between the teams came at Twickenham in June, the Springboks kicking off their year with a 41-13 win.
Kriel, Makazole Mapimpi, Mbongeni Mbonambi and Edwill van der Merwe got on the scoresheet for South Africa, who were also awarded a penalty try.
Dewi Lake scored Wales’ only try and Costelow kicked the remainder of their points.
In a game of three yellow cards, Aphelele Fassi, Rio Dyer and Aaron Wainwright spent time in the sin-bin.
South Africa have won six of the last seven meetings with Wales’ only success in that time being a 13-12 victory in Bloemfontein in July 2022.
Team notes
Wales set a new record for most consecutive losses after slipping to their 11th straight defeat against Australia last weekend.
Wales have also won just one out of nine games in Cardiff in Gatland's second stint in charge of the team and are without a victory at the Principality Stadium since August 2023.
Wales are now facing the prospect of a winless calendar year for the first time since 1937.
Wainwright and Ben Thomas crossed for tries in the 52-20 defeat, while Gareth Anscombe kicked two penalties and a conversion and Costelow added another two points with the boot.
Wales had equalled the 10-match losing run of the Steve Hansen era (2002-03) in losing 24-19 to Fiji the week before.
Debutant Blair Murray got off to a flying start and their position strengthened further when they were awarded a penalty try.
An ill-disciplined first half saw French referee Luc Ramos also show yellow cards to Wales flanker Tommy Reffell and Fiji No 8 Elia Canakaivata, while Semi Radradra received a 20-minute red card.
Turning around 14-10 up, Wales struggled to impose themselves in the second period and could only manage five more points from Ellis Bevan’s try.
One positive for Wales was the line-out, which operated at 100% (18/18).
However, the turnover count went against them, 13-5.
Wales went into their July tour of Australia having been beaten 41-13 by South Africa at Twickenham Stadium prior to departure.
Dyer and Wainwright were shown yellow cards as Wales went 14-3 behind but they fought back to end the half only one point in arrears.
Wales turned around 14-13 down but conceded 27 points without reply in the second half.
Defeats followed against Australia – 25-16 in Sydney and 36-28 in Melbourne – in July.
Wales suffered their second Guinness Men’s Six Nations whitewash and first since 2003 in this year’s Championship.
Wales began their campaign with a 27-26 loss at home to Scotland before falling 16-14 to England at Twickenham.
Ireland convincingly beat them 31-7 in round three before France left Cardiff with a 45-24 victory, with the hosts conceding 25 points inside the final 20 minutes.
Their campaign came to a disappointing end with a 24-21 defeat at home to Italy.
Wales were the joint lowest points scorers (92, along with Italy) and also conceded the most (143).
Wales scored nine of their 13 tries in the second half (69%).
Wales only attempted to kick one penalty, which was successful, whereas every other team made seven attempts or more.
Having beaten England 29-20 at Allianz Stadium last weekend, South Africa are bidding to win seven away Test matches in a row against European teams, which would equal their best run (2010-13).
South Africa’s fifth consecutive win against England was achieved thanks to tries from Grant Williams, Du Toit and a Cheslin Kolbe double.
Libbok kicked two conversions, while Handré Pollard also slotted one as well as a penalty.
South Africa will have been disappointed to give away 14 penalties as well as losing Gerhard Steenekamp to the sin-bin, their 13th yellow card of the year.
South Africa beat Scotland 32-15 in their opening match of the Autumn Nations Series at Murrayfield.
It was the second consecutive match where the Springboks prevented Scotland from scoring a try, having won 18-3 when the sides met in Pool B at Rugby World Cup 2023.
Mapimpi scored a first-half double to make it four tries in two matches against Scotland, while Thomas du Toit and Jasper Wiese scored their first Test tries.
On an eventful day for the winger, Mapimpi also received a yellow card.
The two-time Rugby World Cup winner has now crossed for 32 tries in 46 Tests, drawing level with Jaque Fourie in third place on the Springboks’ all-time try-scoring list.
The Scotland win was the first step in South Africa’s bid for a clean sweep of November victories for the first time since 2013.
South Africa clinched their second Rugby Championship title – and their first since 2019 – when they beat Argentina 48-7 in Nelspruit in September.
The Springboks picked up 24 competition points – eight more than runners-up New Zealand – from their five wins and one defeat.
The 29-28 defeat to Los Pumas in round five is just one of two defeats in 2024, the other being the 25-24 loss to Ireland in the second Test of the July series.
The defeat to Argentina ended their record-equalling winning run of five matches in The Rugby Championship and also saw them lose their No 1 ranking to Ireland. They did regain it earlier this month after Ireland were beaten by New Zealand in Dublin.
In the first four rounds, South Africa recorded bonus-point wins away to Australia, 33-7 in Brisbane and 30-12 in Perth, before beating New Zealand 31-27 in Johannesburg and 18-12 in Cape Town. In the opening round win in Brisbane, South Africa conceded three yellow cards in a match for the first time in Test rugby.
Fassi was sin-binned in round three against New Zealand and Wiese and Willie le Roux saw yellow in round four, while Kurt-Lee Arendse spent time in the sin-bin in round five, taking the Springboks’ overall tally of yellow cards to seven, the joint highest in
the competition, along with New Zealand.
South Africa won 15 scrum penalties, which is only four fewer than the rest of the teams between them.
South Africa have only conceded one scrum penalty all competition – the next best is seven (New Zealand).
South had 99 throws in at the line-out – 10 more than the next highest team (New Zealand), with a success rate of 87% ranking them joint second.
The Springboks had the worst goal-kicking success rate having slotted 28 of their 41 attempts (68%).
South Africa attempted the most drop goals (four out of five) but without any success.
The Springboks average the most kicks in play per match (28).
Team news
Only five of the squad that featured in Wales’ last win against South Africa in Bloemfontein in July 2022 are named in the match-day 23 tasked with taking down the world champion Springboks this Saturday.
Prop Gareth Thomas and second-row Will Rowlands are the only players who started that game to wear the same jerseys, while Saturday’s starting hooker Lake was on the bench. Ryan Elias and Tommy Reffell, who started the 13-12 win, are among the replacements this time around.
The front-row from last weekend’s record 52-20 loss to Australia is retained with Thomasand captain Lake joined once again by Archie Griffin.
Rowlands has a new second-row partner in Christ Tshiunza, who replaces the injured Adam Beard, while Taine Plumtree starts in Aaron Wainwright’s place at No 8, with James Botham and Jac Morgan completing the pack at flanker.
Anscombe, the Bloemfontein match-winner, joins Wainwright in dropping out of the squad altogether and his flyhalf spot is taken by Costelow, who is promoted from the bench for his first Test start since the loss to South Africa in June.
Cardiff’s Bevan remains at scrumhalf.
Ben Thomas, who will provide cover at flyhalf, lines up again alongside Max Llewellyn in midfield, while the final change to the starting line-up sees Dyer make his first start of the Autumn Nations Series.
Tom Rogers will hope to build on an impressive display against Australia on the other wing while Blair Murray shifts to full-back to take Cameron Winnett’s place.
With Tshiunza and Costelow promoted into the starting line-up there are two changes to the Wales bench, including Freddie Thomas, who is in line to make his Test debut against the world champions as second-row cover.
Josh Hathaway also joins Rhodri Williams and Eddie James as the backline cover.
Jaden and Jordan Hendrikse – the 36th set of Springbok brothers – will line-up alongside each other at half-back for South Africa’s Autumn Nations Series 2024 finale against Wales.
Scrumhalf Jaden and flyhalf Jordan are the first set of brothers to appear together since Dan and Robert du Preez featured against the same opponents in what was Rassie Erasmus’ first match in charge of the team in Washington DC in June 2018.
It will be the first time that brothers feature in a starting line-up for the Springboks since the Rugby World Cup 2015 pool match with Scotland, when front-rows Jannie and Bismarck du Plessis ran out in tandem in Newcastle.
The Hendrikse’s inclusion are the only changes in the backline from the 29-20 victory over England last weekend, with Damian de Allende and Kriel extending their record as the Springboks’ most-capped centre pairing.
World Rugby Men’s 15s Player of the Year nominee Kolbe, who is set for his 40th Test appearance and Arendse continue on the wings with Fassi at fullback.
Johan Grobbelaar is one of six changes to the pack, making his first appearance of the Autumn Nations Series at hooker, with Du Toit and Wilco Louw the props either side of him.
Ox Nche had initially been named at loose-head with Du Toit at tighthead but Springbok management decided to rest him and bring in Louw, leading to a swap to the No 1 jersey for Du Toit.
The team also features a new second-row combination of the fit-again Jean Kleyn, who last wore the Springbok jersey in the Rugby World Cup 2023 final last October and Franco Mostert.
The only change in the back-row comes at flanker where Elrigh Louw replaces Du Toit, another World Rugby Men’s 15s Player of the Year nominee who is nursing a shoulder niggle.
Louw will start alongside captain Siya Kolisi and No 8 Wiese.
Cameron Hanekom is set to become the 12th Springbok to make his Test debut this year after being named on the bench.
At the other end of the scale, Eben Etzebeth – South Africa’s third nominee for World Rugby Men’s 15s Player of the Year – will extend his record as the most-capped Springbok to 131 caps if he steps off a bench loaded with 431 caps, including flyhalf Pollard who will win an 80th cap when called upon.
Coach notes
Gatland’s second spell in charge has featured just six wins and 17 losses, after returning as head coach at the end of 2022.
His current win record of 26% compares very unfavourably with a 56% win percentage in his first spell in charge (76 wins out of 126).
Gatland initially coached Wales from 2008-19, winning the Men’s Six Nations title in 2008, 2012, 2013 and 2019, three of them with the Grand Slam.
He took Wales to the top of World Rugby’s Men’s Rankings for the first time on the eve of RWC 2019 by virtue of a record 14-match unbeaten run during his final year in charge first time around.
Gatland is still two wins away from 100 Test wins as a head coach (Wales, Ireland and the British & Irish Lions).
The New Zealander also coached Ireland, winning half of his 34 Tests in charge between 1998 and 2001. He won two of his three Tests against Wales as Ireland coach.
Erasmus returned to the Springboks head coach role in February 2024, signing a contract that takes him up the end of 2027.
Erasmus was the mastermind behind the Springboks’ back-to-back Rugby World Cup successes of 2019 and 2023 – as head coach and then director of rugby.
HIs reign in charge started with a defeat to Wales in Washington DC in June 2018.
Erasmus won 36 caps for South Africa as a back-row forward from 1997-2001.
Wales starting XV: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Rio Dyer; 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Ellis Bevan; 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 James Botham; 5 Christ Tshiunza, 4 Will Rowlands; 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake (capt), 1 Gareth Thomas. Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Eddie James, 23 Josh Hathaway.
South Africa starting XV: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse; 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse; 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Siya Kolisi (capt); 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Jean Kleyn; 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Thomas du Toit. Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Handre Pollard.
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